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Mar 12

Provable Scaling Laws of Feature Emergence from Learning Dynamics of Grokking

While the phenomenon of grokking, i.e., delayed generalization, has been studied extensively, it remains an open problem whether there is a mathematical framework that characterizes what kind of features will emerge, how and in which conditions it happens, and is closely related to the gradient dynamics of the training, for complex structured inputs. We propose a novel framework, named Li_2, that captures three key stages for the grokking behavior of 2-layer nonlinear networks: (I) \textbf{L}azy learning, (II) \textbf{i}ndependent feature learning and (III) \textbf{i}nteractive feature learning. At the lazy learning stage, top layer overfits to random hidden representation and the model appears to memorize. Thanks to lazy learning and weight decay, the backpropagated gradient G_F from the top layer now carries information about the target label, with a specific structure that enables each hidden node to learn their representation independently. Interestingly, the independent dynamics follows exactly the gradient ascent of an energy function E, and its local maxima are precisely the emerging features. We study whether these local-optima induced features are generalizable, their representation power, and how they change on sample size, in group arithmetic tasks. When hidden nodes start to interact in the later stage of learning, we provably show how G_F changes to focus on missing features that need to be learned. Our study sheds lights on roles played by key hyperparameters such as weight decay, learning rate and sample sizes in grokking, leads to provable scaling laws of feature emergence, memorization and generalization, and reveals the underlying cause why recent optimizers such as Muon can be effective, from the first principles of gradient dynamics. Our analysis can be extended to multi-layer architectures.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 25, 2025

OASIS: Open Agent Social Interaction Simulations with One Million Agents

There has been a growing interest in enhancing rule-based agent-based models (ABMs) for social media platforms (i.e., X, Reddit) with more realistic large language model (LLM) agents, thereby allowing for a more nuanced study of complex systems. As a result, several LLM-based ABMs have been proposed in the past year. While they hold promise, each simulator is specifically designed to study a particular scenario, making it time-consuming and resource-intensive to explore other phenomena using the same ABM. Additionally, these models simulate only a limited number of agents, whereas real-world social media platforms involve millions of users. To this end, we propose OASIS, a generalizable and scalable social media simulator. OASIS is designed based on real-world social media platforms, incorporating dynamically updated environments (i.e., dynamic social networks and post information), diverse action spaces (i.e., following, commenting), and recommendation systems (i.e., interest-based and hot-score-based). Additionally, OASIS supports large-scale user simulations, capable of modeling up to one million users. With these features, OASIS can be easily extended to different social media platforms to study large-scale group phenomena and behaviors. We replicate various social phenomena, including information spreading, group polarization, and herd effects across X and Reddit platforms. Moreover, we provide observations of social phenomena at different agent group scales. We observe that the larger agent group scale leads to more enhanced group dynamics and more diverse and helpful agents' opinions. These findings demonstrate OASIS's potential as a powerful tool for studying complex systems in digital environments.

  • 23 authors
·
Nov 18, 2024

Dynamic-Group-Aware Networks for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Relational Reasoning

Demystifying the interactions among multiple agents from their past trajectories is fundamental to precise and interpretable trajectory prediction. However, previous works mainly consider static, pair-wise interactions with limited relational reasoning. To promote more comprehensive interaction modeling and relational reasoning, we propose DynGroupNet, a dynamic-group-aware network, which can i) model time-varying interactions in highly dynamic scenes; ii) capture both pair-wise and group-wise interactions; and iii) reason both interaction strength and category without direct supervision. Based on DynGroupNet, we further design a prediction system to forecast socially plausible trajectories with dynamic relational reasoning. The proposed prediction system leverages the Gaussian mixture model, multiple sampling and prediction refinement to promote prediction diversity, training stability and trajectory smoothness, respectively. Extensive experiments show that: 1)DynGroupNet can capture time-varying group behaviors, infer time-varying interaction category and interaction strength during trajectory prediction without any relation supervision on physical simulation datasets; 2)DynGroupNet outperforms the state-of-the-art trajectory prediction methods by a significant improvement of 22.6%/28.0%, 26.9%/34.9%, 5.1%/13.0% in ADE/FDE on the NBA, NFL Football and SDD datasets and achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the ETH-UCY dataset.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 27, 2022

TiKMiX: Take Data Influence into Dynamic Mixture for Language Model Pre-training

The data mixture used in the pre-training of a language model is a cornerstone of its final performance. However, a static mixing strategy is suboptimal, as the model's learning preferences for various data domains shift dynamically throughout training. Crucially, observing these evolving preferences in a computationally efficient manner remains a significant challenge. To address this, we propose TiKMiX, a method that dynamically adjusts the data mixture according to the model's evolving preferences. TiKMiX introduces Group Influence, an efficient metric for evaluating the impact of data domains on the model. This metric enables the formulation of the data mixing problem as a search for an optimal, influence-maximizing distribution. We solve this via two approaches: TiKMiX-D for direct optimization, and TiKMiX-M, which uses a regression model to predict a superior mixture. We trained models with different numbers of parameters, on up to 1 trillion tokens. TiKMiX-D exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art methods like REGMIX while using just 20% of the computational resources. TiKMiX-M leads to an average performance gain of 2% across 9 downstream benchmarks. Our experiments reveal that a model's data preferences evolve with training progress and scale, and we demonstrate that dynamically adjusting the data mixture based on Group Influence, a direct measure of these preferences, significantly improves performance by mitigating the underdigestion of data seen with static ratios.

  • 9 authors
·
Aug 25, 2025 2

Achieving Sample and Computational Efficient Reinforcement Learning by Action Space Reduction via Grouping

Reinforcement learning often needs to deal with the exponential growth of states and actions when exploring optimal control in high-dimensional spaces (often known as the curse of dimensionality). In this work, we address this issue by learning the inherent structure of action-wise similar MDP to appropriately balance the performance degradation versus sample/computational complexity. In particular, we partition the action spaces into multiple groups based on the similarity in transition distribution and reward function, and build a linear decomposition model to capture the difference between the intra-group transition kernel and the intra-group rewards. Both our theoretical analysis and experiments reveal a surprising and counter-intuitive result: while a more refined grouping strategy can reduce the approximation error caused by treating actions in the same group as identical, it also leads to increased estimation error when the size of samples or the computation resources is limited. This finding highlights the grouping strategy as a new degree of freedom that can be optimized to minimize the overall performance loss. To address this issue, we formulate a general optimization problem for determining the optimal grouping strategy, which strikes a balance between performance loss and sample/computational complexity. We further propose a computationally efficient method for selecting a nearly-optimal grouping strategy, which maintains its computational complexity independent of the size of the action space.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 22, 2023

Does Socialization Emerge in AI Agent Society? A Case Study of Moltbook

As large language model agents increasingly populate networked environments, a fundamental question arises: do artificial intelligence (AI) agent societies undergo convergence dynamics similar to human social systems? Lately, Moltbook approximates a plausible future scenario in which autonomous agents participate in an open-ended, continuously evolving online society. We present the first large-scale systemic diagnosis of this AI agent society. Beyond static observation, we introduce a quantitative diagnostic framework for dynamic evolution in AI agent societies, measuring semantic stabilization, lexical turnover, individual inertia, influence persistence, and collective consensus. Our analysis reveals a system in dynamic balance in Moltbook: while global semantic averages stabilize rapidly, individual agents retain high diversity and persistent lexical turnover, defying homogenization. However, agents exhibit strong individual inertia and minimal adaptive response to interaction partners, preventing mutual influence and consensus. Consequently, influence remains transient with no persistent supernodes, and the society fails to develop stable collective influence anchors due to the absence of shared social memory. These findings demonstrate that scale and interaction density alone are insufficient to induce socialization, providing actionable design and analysis principles for upcoming next-generation AI agent societies.

umd-zhou-lab Tianyi Lab
·
Feb 15 4

Large Population Models

Many of society's most pressing challenges, from pandemic response to supply chain disruptions to climate adaptation, emerge from the collective behavior of millions of autonomous agents making decisions over time. Large Population Models (LPMs) offer an approach to understand these complex systems by simulating entire populations with realistic behaviors and interactions at unprecedented scale. LPMs extend traditional modeling approaches through three key innovations: computational methods that efficiently simulate millions of agents simultaneously, mathematical frameworks that learn from diverse real-world data streams, and privacy-preserving communication protocols that bridge virtual and physical environments. This allows researchers to observe how agent behavior aggregates into system-level outcomes and test interventions before real-world implementation. While current AI advances primarily focus on creating "digital humans" with sophisticated individual capabilities, LPMs develop "digital societies" where the richness of interactions reveals emergent phenomena. By bridging individual agent behavior and population-scale dynamics, LPMs offer a complementary path in AI research illuminating collective intelligence and providing testing grounds for policies and social innovations before real-world deployment. We discuss the technical foundations and some open problems here. LPMs are implemented by the AgentTorch framework (github.com/AgentTorch/AgentTorch)

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 14, 2025

Benchmarking LLMs' Swarm intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) show potential for complex reasoning, yet their capacity for emergent coordination in Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) when operating under strict constraints-such as limited local perception and communication, characteristic of natural swarms-remains largely unexplored, particularly concerning the nuances of swarm intelligence. Existing benchmarks often do not fully capture the unique challenges of decentralized coordination that arise when agents operate with incomplete spatio-temporal information. To bridge this gap, we introduce SwarmBench, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate the swarm intelligence capabilities of LLMs acting as decentralized agents. SwarmBench features five foundational MAS coordination tasks within a configurable 2D grid environment, forcing agents to rely primarily on local sensory input (k x k view) and local communication. We propose metrics for coordination effectiveness and analyze emergent group dynamics. Evaluating several leading LLMs in a zero-shot setting, we find significant performance variations across tasks, highlighting the difficulties posed by local information constraints. While some coordination emerges, results indicate limitations in robust planning and strategy formation under uncertainty in these decentralized scenarios. Assessing LLMs under swarm-like conditions is crucial for realizing their potential in future decentralized systems. We release SwarmBench as an open, extensible toolkit-built upon a customizable and scalable physical system with defined mechanical properties. It provides environments, prompts, evaluation scripts, and the comprehensive experimental datasets generated, aiming to foster reproducible research into LLM-based MAS coordination and the theoretical underpinnings of Embodied MAS. Our code repository is available at https://github.com/x66ccff/swarmbench.

  • 4 authors
·
May 7, 2025

Modular versus Hierarchical: A Structural Signature of Topic Popularity in Mathematical Research

Mathematical researchers, especially those in early-career positions, face critical decisions about topic specialization with limited information about the collaborative environments of different research areas. The aim of this paper is to study how the popularity of a research topic is associated with the structure of that topic's collaboration network, as observed by a suite of measures capturing organizational structure at several scales. We apply these measures to 1,938 algorithmically discovered topics across 121,391 papers sourced from arXiv metadata during the period 2020--2025. Our analysis, which controls for the confounding effects of network size, reveals a structural dichotomy--we find that popular topics organize into modular "schools of thought," while niche topics maintain hierarchical core-periphery structures centered around established experts. This divide is not an artifact of scale, but represents a size-independent structural pattern correlated with popularity. We also document a "constraint reversal": after controlling for size, researchers in popular fields face greater structural constraints on collaboration opportunities, contrary to conventional expectations. Our findings suggest that topic selection is an implicit choice between two fundamentally different collaborative environments, each with distinct implications for a researcher's career. To make these structural patterns transparent to the research community, we developed the Math Research Compass (https://mathresearchcompass.com), an interactive platform providing data on topic popularity and collaboration patterns across mathematical topics.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 28, 2025